Our Prospects Are Good....Right?

I know this is weeks late, but it was too funny not to post. Metsblog's Jordan Zakarin interviewed Kevin Goldstein of BP on Valentine's Day and this happened. I bolded the especially memorable parts.

Jordan Zakarin: One of the most intriguing guys in the Mets system is Scott Moviel – obviously has a high ceiling, but the Mets were seemingly recently burned with a big right hander in Mike Pelfrey. Are there legit similarities there, and can Moviel perhaps turn into a top of the line prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t see the similarities really, other than the tall, right-handedness.

Jordan Zakarin: So that’s a good thing?

Kevin Goldstein: Moviel is all projection, while Pelfrey has some really good stuff now — at least the fastball. Moviel is one of those players you can dream on — he could turn into a top of the line prospect, but keep in mind, that every system has this guy. The big, projectable pitcher. A few of them turn into really nice prospects, and most fall by the wayside. Still, to even have a player with that chance is a good thing.

Jordan Zakarin: Sounds like the Mets were pleasantly surprised with his initial performance, though.

Kevin Goldstein: Yes — he took very well to coaching, showed some early feel for a changeup, and threw more strikes than expected.

Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee with upside, Brant Rustich – some say he had some of the best pure stuff in the draft – if he really did gain that command he showed in his pro debut, what’s his ceiling, and is there a chance he’s a starter?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s probably a reliever in the end. Rustich has very good raw stuff, but whoever said it was the best in the draft was smoking something. His fastball/slider combination gives him two plus pitches that profile best in relief, as he doesn’t have much of a changeup. The control hit seems like a total fluke, based on what he did at UCLA, and the fact that he wasn’t throwing strikes in Hawaii.

Jordan Zakarin: He was hurt while at UCLA though, right? He said that really hurt his command, when I talked to him.

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but not always. It’s not like he was a world beater when his finger was fine. He’s mechanically a little messy, and until he consistently throws strikes, he’s not going to have a lot of believers in him… For a guy with an ERA over six in college, to still go in the second round, that tells you his stuff is pretty impressive — but he’s got a long way to go.

Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee coming from the pen — Eddie Kunz – set up man, or potential closer? Did his tough pro debut take away some of the luster, or was he just tired from non-stop pitching the last two years?

Kevin Goldstein: I see him as almost a borderline closer. It could happen, but I’m not sold on it yet. I don’t think his debut really dinged him too much, even Mets knew that he wasn’t one of those college fast-track relievers and might take a bit to develop.

Jordan Zakarin: So he’s not on the Joe Smith track, per se?

Kevin Goldstein: Not unless he starts throwing a ton of strikes.

…as i said on Tuesday, big thanks to kevin, who took out a huge chunk of time to do another interview with me…

…it seems that the Mets still have some decent prospects, it’s just more an issue of a lack of real close-to-the-majors, high-ceiling guys…the thing is, kevin is more optimistic than i had anticipated about the big picture, maybe because the big league team has a real chance to win…but, there are some younger, further away, high-ceiling guys there, which is better than having just a bunch of future utilitymen…

…as i keep saying, this draft, in which the Mets will have three picks inside the first 33, will be very, very important…

Ok, now here is the first comment from the post (which was not by me, though I wish it was):

Comment by The Milledge Idiot

2008-02-14 12:55:36

Jordan: The Mets prospects are good, right!?

Kevin: No.

Jordan: They’re good, right!?

Kevin: No.

Jordan: I’ve heard great things, they’re going to be great!

Kevin: No.

That - as Kenny Bania would say - is gold.

I know it happens at the start of every Spring Training, but is it me or does it seem like the prospect hype is going a little above and beyond this season? The Mets have always overhyped their prospects. See, e.g. "Generation K." But this year on Mets.com, Metsblog, you name the official outlet, it just seems like there is a constant stream of "we have good prospects in the system, you just haven't heard of them!"

Not according to BP.

Puff Piece

(If you look closely you can see Fernando Tatis)

As JP at Blastings Thrilledge has already pointed out, the talented writers over at Baseball Analysts have been posting about the young guns ready to make an impact in 2008 from each division. This is what they have to say about the 2008 Mets:

The Mets are beginning to look a lot like the Yankees… by clubbing the rest of the organizations in their division with their checkbook. Mind you, the Mets are arguably more talented on the field at this point with the Yankees aging and a number of young players unproven. As a result of recent acquisitions, such as that minor trade that netted one of the best pitchers in baseball, the Mets do not appear as though they will entrust significant playing time to any rookies in 2008, barring a run on catastrophic injuries.

Music to Mets fans' ears! Well, we already knew that. Any Mets fan paying attention knows the only thing left in the minors is F-Mart. And most Mets fans are content with that for now seeing as how the depletion was the result of the Santana trade. So to recap: The Mets minor league system is barren...

Not according to the Mets!

The propaganda machine that I interviewed to work with - and was summarily dinged - churned out this beauty on Jonathon Niese this past week.

In case you hadn't been paying attention, Niese was drafted in '05 and spent the last two season in A-ball. His numbers aren't that impressive (4.29 ERA and 1.35 WHIP last year) especially considering it's in single-A. The one thing that stuck out for me is how dramatically he cut his BB rate from '06 to '07. Niese had slightly over a 2:1 K:BB ratio in 2006 and he raised to just over 3:1 in 2007.

In case anyone cares, Sickels ranked Niese the organizations #5 prospect (before the Santana deal) for 2008. He was ranked above both Humber and Joe Smith. Now I'd imagine it's a toss up between Niese and Eddie Kunz for the #2 prospect in the organization!

It's a sad, sad state of affairs. Emphasized by the fact that Jay Horowitz & Co. (aka "Marty Noble") felt the need to start hyping a pitcher who by all accounts will start a third straight year in A-ball with a career ERA of 4.09.

Don't fear Mets fans, help is on the way.