Done Deal

Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via - as always - MLB Trade Rumors) reports that Santana to the Mets is a done deal. The package is supposedly what we all expected - Gomez, Humber, Mulvey, and Guerra.

This was just confirmed in the NY Daily News by Bill Madden and WFAN is also reporting it. Omar and Jeffy have 48-72 hours to work an extension out with Santana before the deal is finalized.

The fact that the Mets acquired the best LHP in the game without dealing our top prospect is even more impressive when you realize that both the Red Sox and Yankees best packages included their best prospects.

Santana, Pedro, Maine, Ollie, Duque. Who isn't excited?

Now I have to get that Baseball Prospectus subscription and finish the analysis of the trade...

It Shouldn't Even Be A Question

(Way too lazy/tired to photoshop Santana's face in there...but you get the drift)

John Peterson at Blastings! Thrilledge posted this recently:

There will be great celebration by sportswriters and fans when the Mets acquire Johan Santana, but not at Blastings! Thrilledge. It will mean the Mets have lost...

It's true that Johan Santana is a fantastic pitcher, and would make the Mets the clear favorite in the NL East, instead of just the likely Champion. But to trade no less than four prospects, your best four excluding Fernando Martinez, and pretty much your only four besides, is just too much...

The offer as it stands, apparently, is Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra. This is already too much, but the Twins want F-Mart as well. And why not? The Mets have already shown how little they value their young players, how desperate they are to win now, at any cost...

Sure, the Mets add one of the best pitchers in baseball. But they will have to give him a large contract, and after next year will have to hand out even more money to replace Pedro and El Duque in the rotation, their young pitchers having been traded to Minnesota.

Next offseason the Mets will also have to retain the services of an outfielder, with Alou gone, Gomez traded and Fernando Martinez still developing.

All of these free agent signings will strip the Mets of their top-round draft picks, further depriving an already destitute farm system of talent.

When will this shit end?

Metstradamus was a bit more optimistic...but still wondered if Johan Santana was going to be the Mets fans version of Herschel Walker.

Alright. It's time to look at this from an objective viewpoint. This is Johan Goddamn Santana people. 3 of the past 4 years he has posted a sub-1.00 WHIP. His career ERA+ is 140. To put that into perspective the 2007 Met with the highest ERA+ (excluding Pedro's 3 weeks) was Ollie Perez at 120.

Santana gave up a lot more HRs than usual and saw his ERA rise over 3 last season and still posted a 130 ERA+ In other words, a down year from Johan Santana is still ten-percent better than the best pitcher we had last season.

Does this mean Santana is entering the downside of his career? I doubt it. He posted a better 2006 than 2005 and after coming off a super-human 2004 anything he does is bound to be criticized for not matching up. He's two years removed from winning the AL triple crown for pitchers and we're worried about Carlos Gomez?

And the worries about trading too many prospects are reasonable given the Mets history of horrendous trades (I won't yet concede the Milledge deal was a bust but you can). But this is different. This isn't Robbie Alomar and this isn't Victor Zambrano. This is arguably the greatest LHP of this generation who already has 2 Cy Young Awards under his belt and averages 220 K's per 162 IP and he's only going to 29 on opening day 2008.

So if the Twins want Humber and his underwhelming self they can have him. If they want Gomez and his freakish speed they can have him. If they want Guerra and his supposedly tremendous upside they can have him. And Omar'll even throw in Kevin Mulvey at no extra charge.

An opportunity to acquire a pitcher of Santana's caliber comes along once in a generation. Could Guerra turn into an ace in Minneapolis with Mulvey and Humber following in the rotation and Gomez swiping 100 bases a year and winning gold gloves in CF? They sure could. But I wouldn't bet on it...and I sure as hell wouldn't let that gamble stand in the way of acquiring a bona fide ace who will fill a void that this team desperately needs to fill.

The Carousel Continues

From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune via MLB Trade Rumors:

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggests the Mets might be the best fit for Johan Santana. He says they're offering four players, three of them pitchers: Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. It's a strong package.

The piece goes on to add that the Twins would pull the trigger right now if F-Mart was included (either as an additional player or replacing Gomez)

I say do it unless it includes both F-Mart and Gomez. If it's one or the other I think it's a no-brainer. Humber is a B prospect at this point, we don't know what Guerra is, and Mulvey projects as a #3 at best. The blue chip would be Martinez or Gomez and in my humble opinion it appears to be worth it (never forget Alex Escobar).

Will it get done? Probably not knowing this organization. But as the Yankees and Red Sox keep stalling and waiting the Mets chances keep increasing. Cross your fingers.

Blanton to Mets?

Via MLB Trade Rumors...Buster Olney is reporting that the Mets could have Blanton soon - if they agree to trade Gomez, Mulvey, and Heilman. I'm inclined to believe that Heilman could be just as decent a starter as Blanton if given the chance so this deal doesn't quite make sense. If this were Dan Haren it would be a different story, but Blanton is an innings eater who doesn't walk many guys. The caveat of course is that he doesn't strike many guys out either.

He also pitches in a pitchers park now as it is in Oakland, so the "Shea will do wonders for him" argument is weak. He's been an average pitcher in the AL (career ERA+ 105, career ERA of 4.10) who's good for 200+ innings. I don't think it's worth Gomez, Mulvey, and Heilman....do you?

Who to Believe?

Everyone's favorite VORP-hater Jon Heyman reports today that the Mets round out the three teams left in the Johan hunt - the other two being a couple of teams from the AL East you may have heard of.

"And the Mets offered different packages of prospects that included either outfielder Carlos Gomez or outfield prospect Fernando Martinez but not both, declining to include the one extra prospect the Twins requested to clinch the deal according to people familiar with those talks."

Again, what are they waiting for? What other prospect do we have worth holding onto other than F-Mart and Carlos III? I'd throw in the Twins choice of 2 from the group of Pelfrey, Humber, or Mulvey. After all, the Mets would be acquiring a pretty decent starter in return.

But wait, Heyman's not done just yet, he's not content with simply giving us hope - no, he has to throw us into a full blown frenzy:

"Some Mets people actually thought they had the best offer at the winter meetings, even though Minnesota originally didn't see a way for the Mets to contend for him. Eventually, Mets GM Omar Minaya or his bosses may conclude that the deal is worth making not only to improve their on-field product, but also to change their 2008 spring storyline from their epic collapse to the '07 season."

Unfortunately this is the Mets MO - make a trade to save face or "change face." However, this is the one time it would actually not be a bad idea. If we have the best package - the for the love of everything holy get this goddamn trade done - as in right now. Please don't outsmart yourself Omar, we beg you.

All this hope and unbridled enthusiasm is summarily shat on by Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog, who claims that the Twins want Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, and more. I'd love to believe Heyman and think it's a hangup over one guy...but is Johnny Santana worth every pitching prospect we have (they probably want Deolis Guerra too) and Gomez or Martinez?

Tip of the cap to MLB Trade Rumors for both links.

Exhale Slowly

Jose Reyes will play today. After a scare in a meaningless AB last night (this morning) against the Cubs and Bobby Howry, Reyes slapped an opposite-field single and seemed to limp to first base. He was immediately taken out of the game and replaced by Ruben Gotay. As Keith, Ron, and Gary speculated, Mets fans across the country held their collective breath.

Also, a great job by Kevin Burkhardt to get some insider info from the clubhouse and ease the feeling of dread before any official reports were published or announced.

It also looks like Carlos Gomez will get some more playing time as Moises Alou was placed on the 15-day DL to make room for today's starter Jason Vargas.

On a side note, Gary noted that the Mets starting lineup last night (this morning) was the first ever in MLB history to feature three players named Carlos. Quite an honor for the ballclub.