7.5

Yes, seven-and-a-half. That's how many wins Johan Santana is worth over a replacement player according to Baseball Prospectus. Take a look at the PECOTA projections for Santana as a Met in 2008:

         GS  W-L   IP      H     BB   SO    HR   ERA   
Mets     32  16-8  225.0   184   60   239   25   2.94 

       SuperVORP  WARP   MORP
         56.8       7.5    $22,400,000

Granted, BP defines a "replacement player" as someone extraordinarily bad and if an entire team was made up of replacement players it would project to win 20-25 games in a 162 game season. But without Santana who were the Mets other options in the final rotation spot? Based on his aggregate performance last season, Mike Pelfrey, at this point in his career, isn't much better. In fact, in 2006 with very similar WHIP, ERA, and ERA+ Pelfrey's WARP was 0.3.

Assuming that Livan Hernandez would be manning that spot and not Pelfrey still gives the Mets around 4.5 wins this season, as Livan's WARP has been hovering around 3 for the past three seasons.

PECOTA also has Santana's homeruns allowed returning to 2004-2006 type levels. As Nate Silver notes in the BP article, Santana was always a flyball pitcher it just seems more of the flyballs are leaving the parks at this point in his career. Either way, one would assume that pitching at Shea would help this HR problem. Well, like most assumptions, that would be wrong. Based on park factors alone, Shea is more HR-friendly than the Metrodome. It would appear - based on the 2008 PECOTA projections - that last season's increase in HR allowed was either a blip on the radar or Santana will benefit from facing less potent lineups in the National League.

One Santana should also get a boost from making half his starts on grass instead of carpet which could also reflected in the 13 less hits PECOTA projects him to allow as Met instead of a Twin. The park factors back this up for 1B and 3B, and as you would expect with its bigger gaps Shea plays better for 2B hitters.

Any way you look a it the Mets added the premier pitcher in baseball without giving up their blue chip prospect or major league talent. Unless Mulvey and Humber are anchoring that Twins rotation and Gomez is making his 2nd AS appearance in 2010 while Johan is in Port St. Lucie rehabbing his (for the second time) surgically repaired elbow, I'd go out on a limb and say the deal was a good idea.

Done Deal

Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via - as always - MLB Trade Rumors) reports that Santana to the Mets is a done deal. The package is supposedly what we all expected - Gomez, Humber, Mulvey, and Guerra.

This was just confirmed in the NY Daily News by Bill Madden and WFAN is also reporting it. Omar and Jeffy have 48-72 hours to work an extension out with Santana before the deal is finalized.

The fact that the Mets acquired the best LHP in the game without dealing our top prospect is even more impressive when you realize that both the Red Sox and Yankees best packages included their best prospects.

Santana, Pedro, Maine, Ollie, Duque. Who isn't excited?

Now I have to get that Baseball Prospectus subscription and finish the analysis of the trade...

Pedro's Small Stature and Fragility = Key to 2008 Mets Success?

This is quite possibly one of the best ideas I've heard in a while. Tim Marchman suggests that the Mets would be better off using a 6-man rotation (at least to start the season). Thanks to Repoz for the link.

Maine and Perez both perform better on long rest, El Duque cannot make more than 25 or so starts in a season, and Martinez will presumably need extra rest; but none of this need be a problem. Assuming the Mets sign Livan Hernandez, they could put Pelfrey, Humber, or even Aaron Heilman a clear shot at a job by running a six-man rotation for a month or two at the beginning of the season, saving their best pitchers' arms for the stretch. Something like this could turn a weakness into a strength.

While the argument is strong, I doubt the Mets would ever entertain the idea. It's true that Pedro was kept on 5 days rest throughout September last season (if I remember correctly), but that was more a product of not over extending him and keeping him fresh for that oh so magical 2007 playoff run.

And while any Met fan will tell you that it appeared as if Maine and Perez tired down the stretch, the numbers back it up. Here were John Maine's ERA numbers by month:

Mar/Apr: 1.35
May: 4.50
June: 2.66
July: 3.56
August: 6.32
Sept/Oct: 5.93

1st Half: 2.71
2nd Half: 5.53

Remember that September/October had the near no-no in there as well.

Now, Maine's BABIP rose to .318 in the 2nd half from .253 in the first, but that could just as easily be the result of him leaving pitches up/losing velocity as it meaning he was unlucky.

Another interesting stat of Maine's is that his ERA in wins was 1.75 and - stunningly - his ERA in losses was 8.75. Compare that to a 4.02 mark in NDs and it seems to back up the fact that when things aren't going well Maine loses focus (i.e. mentally implodes).

Oliver Perez's numbers over the same period are as follows:

Mar/Apr: 3.86
May: 2.01
June: 4.06
July: 1.40
August: 5.19
Sept/Oct: 4.45

1st Half: 3.14
2nd Half: 4.04

Ollie's 2nd half numbers are skewed by his outstanding July, but his numbers also ballooned in August and September as compared to the rest of his season. Even more telling, his BABIP also skyrocketed from .240 in the 1st half to .312 in the 2nd.

In the second half Ollie walked 5 more batters and allowed 7 more hits in 12.1 fewer innings. From a cursory glance at the stats it seems as if his dropoff was simply from not going as deep into games which would make one assume he was throwing more pitches early.

And lo and behold that was exactly the case. Perez went 7 or more innings only twice from Aug. 1st on. Compare that to 9 outings of 7+ innings from Opening Day until July 20th. He was also averaging (roughly off the top of my head) the same number of pitches per start in about an inning less of work during the same period.

The same thing is true for Maine - only it began about a month earlier. Prior to July 5th (when Maine's ERA was 2.71 and he seemed to be a lock for the NL All-Star team) Maine had 9 outings of 7+ innings. After July 5th he had 3.

The empirical data - from a very brief look - backs up what every Met fan witnessed last season. We know the drill with El Duque. He'll miss a month if we're lucky. With Pedro you don't know what you're going to get. The same goes for Mulpelfumber. So, dare I say, what would the problem be with going to a 6 man rotation? Give Pedro and Duque the rest we know they need. Give Maine and Perez the rest that would probably help them be more productive late in the season. And assuming we don't sign Livan, give two of the three headed prospect monster a shot to make the rotation out of spring training.

I'd agree with Marchman, who (I'd assume) thinks this scenario looks better with one rookie and Livan than with two rookies; however, I'm not totally averse to doing it with two rookies either.

Who am I kidding. Bring on Livan, injuries, and another second half collapse!

EDIT: Jerry Crasnick (via MLB Trade Rumors) reports that it will be Kyle Lohse not Livan Hernandez if the Mets fail to acquire Johan Santana. So just go right on ahead and imagine the entire above mentioned scenario with "Kyle Lohse" instead of "Livan Hernandez." Just when you didn't think it could get any better...it does!

Oh The Pain

As I'm working on my objective analysis of the prospects involved in the Santana trade I'm treated to this little nugget from MLB Trade Rumors:

"Olney talked to a talent evaluator who wondered whether the Twins might be concerned about Johan Santana's health. Reduced late-season velocity and less use of his slider could be signs."

Wouldn't that be the absolute last straw for any Met fan? Imagine trading for Santana only to find out he needs arthroscopic surgery in February and be out until August. I'm openly rooting for it to happen...it would completely sum up my entire existence as a Met fan in one painful press conference.

I, for one, would be willing to write a blank check for the audio of Joe Benigno's show the day after Omar announces that Santana is done for the season...ideally it would come on the same day as Humber is selected to start in the All-Star game for the AL.

Look for the real analysis of the trade this weekend.

It Shouldn't Even Be A Question

(Way too lazy/tired to photoshop Santana's face in there...but you get the drift)

John Peterson at Blastings! Thrilledge posted this recently:

There will be great celebration by sportswriters and fans when the Mets acquire Johan Santana, but not at Blastings! Thrilledge. It will mean the Mets have lost...

It's true that Johan Santana is a fantastic pitcher, and would make the Mets the clear favorite in the NL East, instead of just the likely Champion. But to trade no less than four prospects, your best four excluding Fernando Martinez, and pretty much your only four besides, is just too much...

The offer as it stands, apparently, is Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra. This is already too much, but the Twins want F-Mart as well. And why not? The Mets have already shown how little they value their young players, how desperate they are to win now, at any cost...

Sure, the Mets add one of the best pitchers in baseball. But they will have to give him a large contract, and after next year will have to hand out even more money to replace Pedro and El Duque in the rotation, their young pitchers having been traded to Minnesota.

Next offseason the Mets will also have to retain the services of an outfielder, with Alou gone, Gomez traded and Fernando Martinez still developing.

All of these free agent signings will strip the Mets of their top-round draft picks, further depriving an already destitute farm system of talent.

When will this shit end?

Metstradamus was a bit more optimistic...but still wondered if Johan Santana was going to be the Mets fans version of Herschel Walker.

Alright. It's time to look at this from an objective viewpoint. This is Johan Goddamn Santana people. 3 of the past 4 years he has posted a sub-1.00 WHIP. His career ERA+ is 140. To put that into perspective the 2007 Met with the highest ERA+ (excluding Pedro's 3 weeks) was Ollie Perez at 120.

Santana gave up a lot more HRs than usual and saw his ERA rise over 3 last season and still posted a 130 ERA+ In other words, a down year from Johan Santana is still ten-percent better than the best pitcher we had last season.

Does this mean Santana is entering the downside of his career? I doubt it. He posted a better 2006 than 2005 and after coming off a super-human 2004 anything he does is bound to be criticized for not matching up. He's two years removed from winning the AL triple crown for pitchers and we're worried about Carlos Gomez?

And the worries about trading too many prospects are reasonable given the Mets history of horrendous trades (I won't yet concede the Milledge deal was a bust but you can). But this is different. This isn't Robbie Alomar and this isn't Victor Zambrano. This is arguably the greatest LHP of this generation who already has 2 Cy Young Awards under his belt and averages 220 K's per 162 IP and he's only going to 29 on opening day 2008.

So if the Twins want Humber and his underwhelming self they can have him. If they want Gomez and his freakish speed they can have him. If they want Guerra and his supposedly tremendous upside they can have him. And Omar'll even throw in Kevin Mulvey at no extra charge.

An opportunity to acquire a pitcher of Santana's caliber comes along once in a generation. Could Guerra turn into an ace in Minneapolis with Mulvey and Humber following in the rotation and Gomez swiping 100 bases a year and winning gold gloves in CF? They sure could. But I wouldn't bet on it...and I sure as hell wouldn't let that gamble stand in the way of acquiring a bona fide ace who will fill a void that this team desperately needs to fill.

The Carousel Continues

From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune via MLB Trade Rumors:

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggests the Mets might be the best fit for Johan Santana. He says they're offering four players, three of them pitchers: Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber. It's a strong package.

The piece goes on to add that the Twins would pull the trigger right now if F-Mart was included (either as an additional player or replacing Gomez)

I say do it unless it includes both F-Mart and Gomez. If it's one or the other I think it's a no-brainer. Humber is a B prospect at this point, we don't know what Guerra is, and Mulvey projects as a #3 at best. The blue chip would be Martinez or Gomez and in my humble opinion it appears to be worth it (never forget Alex Escobar).

Will it get done? Probably not knowing this organization. But as the Yankees and Red Sox keep stalling and waiting the Mets chances keep increasing. Cross your fingers.

False Hope

From LENIII in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

The Twins checked in with the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets just before everyone split for the holidays but nothing major appears to be heating up.

Yes, you just read the word Mets. Indications are that the Mets remain a viable destination for ace Johan Santana, and that the Twins like enough of their players that a deal could be worked out without shortstop Jose Reyes being part of the package.

Outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez have been mentioned in other reports as possible targets. Pitchers Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber are considered good prospects but it’s unclear how much the Twins like them. And, it’s unknown if there are any established players the Mets are willing to part with (Reyes and David Wright seem untouchable).

This is pure speculation, but you have to wonder if the Twins would prefer to deal Santana to a National League team. Santana, a career .258 hitter, would get the chance to swing the bat. And, except for interleague play, the Twins wouldn’t have to face him during the regular season.

This is from the same guy who told us the Mets only had their name in the mix for "PR purposes" a few weeks ago.

The merry-go-round that is the 2007 offseason continues. At least we don't have to worry about trading for an overweight pitcher whose success is largely attributed to smoke and mirrors anymore - Jerry Crasnick at ESPN is reporting the Blanton talks have cooled.

If anyone's interested, Don Burke at the Star-Ledger had a nice piece about Kevin Mulvey and what it's like to have been "traded" about 500 different times already this winter. If worse comes to worse I won't be too upset with Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey battling for rotation spots. Not that it matters of course...whoever loses the spring training battle is guaranteed a spot in May when the bunion acts up.