Pedro's Small Stature and Fragility = Key to 2008 Mets Success?

This is quite possibly one of the best ideas I've heard in a while. Tim Marchman suggests that the Mets would be better off using a 6-man rotation (at least to start the season). Thanks to Repoz for the link.

Maine and Perez both perform better on long rest, El Duque cannot make more than 25 or so starts in a season, and Martinez will presumably need extra rest; but none of this need be a problem. Assuming the Mets sign Livan Hernandez, they could put Pelfrey, Humber, or even Aaron Heilman a clear shot at a job by running a six-man rotation for a month or two at the beginning of the season, saving their best pitchers' arms for the stretch. Something like this could turn a weakness into a strength.

While the argument is strong, I doubt the Mets would ever entertain the idea. It's true that Pedro was kept on 5 days rest throughout September last season (if I remember correctly), but that was more a product of not over extending him and keeping him fresh for that oh so magical 2007 playoff run.

And while any Met fan will tell you that it appeared as if Maine and Perez tired down the stretch, the numbers back it up. Here were John Maine's ERA numbers by month:

Mar/Apr: 1.35
May: 4.50
June: 2.66
July: 3.56
August: 6.32
Sept/Oct: 5.93

1st Half: 2.71
2nd Half: 5.53

Remember that September/October had the near no-no in there as well.

Now, Maine's BABIP rose to .318 in the 2nd half from .253 in the first, but that could just as easily be the result of him leaving pitches up/losing velocity as it meaning he was unlucky.

Another interesting stat of Maine's is that his ERA in wins was 1.75 and - stunningly - his ERA in losses was 8.75. Compare that to a 4.02 mark in NDs and it seems to back up the fact that when things aren't going well Maine loses focus (i.e. mentally implodes).

Oliver Perez's numbers over the same period are as follows:

Mar/Apr: 3.86
May: 2.01
June: 4.06
July: 1.40
August: 5.19
Sept/Oct: 4.45

1st Half: 3.14
2nd Half: 4.04

Ollie's 2nd half numbers are skewed by his outstanding July, but his numbers also ballooned in August and September as compared to the rest of his season. Even more telling, his BABIP also skyrocketed from .240 in the 1st half to .312 in the 2nd.

In the second half Ollie walked 5 more batters and allowed 7 more hits in 12.1 fewer innings. From a cursory glance at the stats it seems as if his dropoff was simply from not going as deep into games which would make one assume he was throwing more pitches early.

And lo and behold that was exactly the case. Perez went 7 or more innings only twice from Aug. 1st on. Compare that to 9 outings of 7+ innings from Opening Day until July 20th. He was also averaging (roughly off the top of my head) the same number of pitches per start in about an inning less of work during the same period.

The same thing is true for Maine - only it began about a month earlier. Prior to July 5th (when Maine's ERA was 2.71 and he seemed to be a lock for the NL All-Star team) Maine had 9 outings of 7+ innings. After July 5th he had 3.

The empirical data - from a very brief look - backs up what every Met fan witnessed last season. We know the drill with El Duque. He'll miss a month if we're lucky. With Pedro you don't know what you're going to get. The same goes for Mulpelfumber. So, dare I say, what would the problem be with going to a 6 man rotation? Give Pedro and Duque the rest we know they need. Give Maine and Perez the rest that would probably help them be more productive late in the season. And assuming we don't sign Livan, give two of the three headed prospect monster a shot to make the rotation out of spring training.

I'd agree with Marchman, who (I'd assume) thinks this scenario looks better with one rookie and Livan than with two rookies; however, I'm not totally averse to doing it with two rookies either.

Who am I kidding. Bring on Livan, injuries, and another second half collapse!

EDIT: Jerry Crasnick (via MLB Trade Rumors) reports that it will be Kyle Lohse not Livan Hernandez if the Mets fail to acquire Johan Santana. So just go right on ahead and imagine the entire above mentioned scenario with "Kyle Lohse" instead of "Livan Hernandez." Just when you didn't think it could get any better...it does!

History Repeats Itself

Since one can only subject them self to so many hours of civil procedure review...I have just enough brainpower left to copy and paste this piece by Tim Marchman from today's NY Sun. Why just cut and paste you ask? Well, because he's the journalist and put what I've been thinking for 2 weeks into just the right words:

"Every time the Mets make a fetish of professionalism (and do so at the price of talent), they regret it, as they do whenever they make a fetish of experience at the expense of youth, or play for the next year rather than the next five. When they do all these at once, as when they traded Kevin Mitchell and Scott Kazmir, the results tend towards the unforgivable. But they do the same thing over and over again, never learning from the past and never changing. General managers, managers, and coaches are fired, and the players grow old and retire, but the Mets are always the Mets — never accepting risk, always afraid of failure, and never quite as good as they should be.

The Mets should be a great team, and they can be. David Wright, Jose Reyes, Perez, and Maine all met or surpassed expectations this year, and the best of the team's veterans still have plenty left. This is a team that can succeed, wildly, for years. But for that to happen, the Mets have to trust talent, at every level and in every signing and trade."

As usual, I couldn't have said it better myself.

Your season has come!

Oliver Perez > Barry Zito?

(Not only is he rich, he also fights terrorism.)

While you can't say that Oliver Perez is a better pitcher than Barry Zito...the early going has seen Ollie be more consistent and pitch to a better record than his 7 Year/$126 million counterpart for tonight's matchup in whatever they call Pac Bell Park these days.

And while I'm glad the Mets' didn't go above five years for Zito, I think there's a part of every Mets fan that wishes we had landed the crown jewel of the 06'/07' offseason. You can't deny that he would look nice at the top of the rotation with Pelfrey morphing into the 2003 Aaron Heilman and El Duque's 72 years finally catching up to him.

Around the talk circuit:

• F&F's Jason has a nice blurb about Mike Pelfrey.
• Ryan at Always Amazin' again linked to a Neyer blog posting, and I am forever grateful:
  

  When you read about Julio Franco vs. Randy Johnson last night, you don't know where to pause for healthy reflection.

  Do you pause (and reflect) upon learning this was "the oldest hitter-pitcher matchup in Major League Baseball history"?

  Do you pause upon learning that Franco is going to turn 49 in a few months?

  Do you pause upon learning that a (nearly) 49-year-old man can hit a good fastball 418 feet? Upon learning the same man stole a base? Upon learning that after the game, he lifted weights for 20 minutes?

  Take a moment, and make a short list of the greatest players in the game's long history. Now circle the names of the ones who were still playing when they were 48.

  Right. No circles. In 1982, Julio Franco played with Pete Rose and Steve Carlton and Tug McGraw. In 2006, he's playing with Jose Reyes and David Wright and Lastings Milledge. You want to make sense of it all? You'll need a scientist, and a good one.

• Finally, Brian Lawrence signed with the Mets on Sunday, and is expected to make some minor league starts to "rebuild his arm strength." He can't be worse than Chan Ho can he?
  

The Professor: MVP

Although I didn't think my wish for Tyler Yates would come true so soon, it did and it was just as I imagined. The Mets improved to 4-0 after shellacking the Braves in Atlanta tonight. It goes to show you that anytime I mention something, it's usually wrong.

After singing the praises of the Braves strengthened pitching staff, the Mets pounded them for 11 runs, including 6 of them off the very, very improved bullpen that I fawned over not 12 hours ago. Well, I never said I was intelligent.

The real story was Oliver Perez and his terrific performance: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB. He located his pitches well, kept the Braves off-balance, and when he started to get wild he composed himself and got back to business. It's only one start, but it was hard not to be impressed. Ron Darling said it at the top of the broadcast, with Perez's stuff he can very easily turn 2006's 3-13 record around to 13-3 in 2007.

In other breaking news, Gary Cohen spoke the truth when he declared The Professor the Mets early season MVP. Keith promptly agreed, and went on to tell some rollicking good stories about El Sid nearly being mauled by a giant Tiger Shark off the coast of Hawaii. Good times in Mets Fandom...good times indeed.