Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Out on a Limb

BP's Prospectus Preview for today discussing the the Marlins having to face Santana and Pedro on back to back days:
The Marlins will therefore be facing, in back-to-back starts, arguably the best left-handed changeup and best right-handed changeups around. Martinez has used his change to strike out 10.2 per nine for his career, the third-highest rate of all pitchers in history (minimum 1000 IP), while Santana has relied on his for 9.5 K/9, the fifth-best rate all time.
If Pedro can be anything close to as good as he was in September last year for the long haul we may see 2001 D'Backs references thrown around pretty soon. And while I'm well aware that RJ and Schilling were both still throwing 98 with nasty offspeed stuff, I wouldn't be afraid to make the bet that the Mets eclipse the D'Backs record in starts made by the top two starters.

Just a quick refresher:

Schilling (2001): 22-6, 2.98 ERA, 155 ERA+
Johnson (2001): 21-6, 2.49 ERA, 188 ERA+

Let's take a Santana Cy Young season, and Pedro's first full season as a Met:

Santana (2004): 20-6, 2.61 ERA, 182 ERA+
Martinez (2005): 15-8, 2.82 ERA, 145 ERA+

It's possible if Pedro stays healthy. Enjoy Rick VandenHurk.

UPDATE 8:42: It's official. I am the jinx.

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