Farewell Professor Reyes

Adam Rubin reports today that Jose Reyes is officially retiring from Professor Reyes' Spanish Academy. We have reached a crossroads my friends. Today truly marks the end of another great era in Mets History.

Professor Reyes, you will be missed.

Don't Fuck With Marty

Would you insult this man's baseball intelligence? You probably should, but that's not why we're here today. We're here to ask why he is such a d-bag in responding to mailbag questions that even hint at using stats as a way of looking at players.

I understand that 99.99999% of the emails that this guy receives are something along the lines of "Yo Marty, you think the Mets can trade Schneider and Pelfrey to the Tribe for C.C. and Victor Martinez - Love, Sal from Brooklyn," but Marty seems to be getting a tad feisty these past couple of mailbags.

In his latest mailbag, Marty Noble graces our feeble minds with his heightened baseball knowledge by tossing this "answer" out there.

Brian Schneider's statistics suggest he has a strong preference against batting eighth in the order. Between 2005-07, Schneider has batted .279 (.768 OPS) in 559 at-bats in the seven-hole but only .220 (.598 OPS) in 409 at-bats batting eighth.

To put it in perspective, that is the difference between Brian McCann and Jason Kendall. The trend holds for each of the past three years; Schneider's OPS has been at least 140 points higher in the seven-hole each year. Any chance the Mets bat Schneider higher due to his history of not producing at the bottom of the order?
-- Kevin K., Washington. D.C.

Put away the calculator for a moment and understand that a batter's place in the order is at least partially a function of what other players do well and poorly. Schneider is not going to bat first, third, fourth or fifth for the Mets. The more plate appearances available to players with higher on-base percentages, the more often the batting order turns over and the more scoring opportunities develop. And Schenider isn't an on-base guy no matter where he bats.

That said and with all due respect to the your number crunching, how many players do you suppose would hit more productively batting eighth with the pitcher behind them than batting elsewhere? And do you suppose the player the Mets would bat eighth in place of Schneider wouldn't be similarly affected?

Yes Kevin K, put away the calculator. Such machines frighten and confuse Marty. Notice the "I'm Marty Noble, bitch!" attitude in such phrases as: "With all due respect to your number crunching" and "do you suppose..."

I also didn't see where Kevin suggested that Schneider bat 1st, 3rd, 4th, or 5th. I only see where he suggested 7th. Based on the numbers Kevin K threw out there, this wasn't a suggestion that necessitated the holier than thou response of the great Marty Noble. A simple look at Schneider's BaseballReference page would have let Marty respond rationally by telling Kevin K that over the course of his career Schneider's splits in the 7th v. 8th hole are only .265/.244 and .725/.702 (BA and OPS). His marginally increased production could be attributed to many things, but the key point to understand is this: he can't hit either way.

I can imagine Marty on the phone dictating this acerbic response to his editor with the same smug grin on his face as in the above picture while the editor is still trying to understand why this guy doesn't just buy a goddamn computer.

And It Begins

As everyone is already well aware, Moises is out for 4-6 weeks with a hernia. Since nobody reading here missed last season, it's safe to say that we can assume that means more like 6-8 weeks. Why is this inevitable injury such a big deal? I'm glad you asked, fellow sports fans.

It's a big deal because it exposes the ridiculously laughable lack of productive corner outfielders in the organization. Fiery comments about the Lastings trade aside, it's a touch comforting to know that even without the Lastings trade we'd be stuck in the same predicament -- except Da Edge would be in RF instead of the man who currently vomits everytime he sees daylight.

Omar held a press conference today to address the "Alou situation" and claimed that there was a good chance the team would fill the hole "with someone internal right now." I'd imagine so since there's nobody left to trade besides F-Mart and Niese and I'd imagine they're both untouchable right now -- but assuming Omar does stand pat, let's take a look at what will be coming out of the LF spot for the first month and a half to two months of the season. Drumroll...

Angel Pagan: Impressive so far this spring, but underwhelming for his career. His 2008 PECOTA looks like this: .249/.313/.389. Not terrible, but not what you want from a corner outfielder. He's good defensively though!

Endy Chavez: Oh, that's right. He's injured too! We know he's great with the glove - but we also know that when he plays every day he's just not a servicable option in a corner OF spot. 2008 PECOTA: .282/.334/.362

Damion Easley: Oops! Another one bites the dust. Plus the fact that he's an infielder.

Marlon Anderson: Another IF whose holes become glaring if he plays everyday. His PECOTA looks better than Pagan's though - but perhaps not enough to offset the defensive dropoff: .264/.346/.430

Now let's take a trip down trade-some-more-prospects-for-a-quick-fix lane and examine some options that are universally regarded as "available" should Omar decide to make a deal:

Xavier Nady: Perfect fit and would love to see it - but who are we trading to get him? 2008 PECOTA: .280/.340/.470

Matt Murton: Meh. In the words of BP: "Let's be honest, Matt Murton is a good, well rounded hitter, but it looks as though he's going to peak as about a .275-EqA bat, and you can subtract a few points from that for his propensity to make boneheaded plays in the OF" PECOTA puts him around the same offensive output as Nady: .295/.359/.462

Scott Hairston: Yeah. That'll work. .258/.332/.469 - Maybe if he could replicate his .644 SLG from last season's stint with the Padres, but I doubt it considering that number was preceded by a .222/.301/.358 performance in Arizona over the first half of the season. He has had a SLG above .600 in AAA but he strikes out a ton and doesn't walk nearly enough. The verdict? Let him stay in SD and forever curse Trevor Hoffman's name.

Nelson Cruz: Find a non-die hard who even knows who he is and I'll mail you a dollar. PECOTA's got him at .256/.323/.453 for 2008. Not terrible, but not worth giving up anything to get in return.

So that's it. That is your depressing tour of what one of the "power" positions will likely look like for April and most of May 2008. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 New York Mets!

Worried Yet?

Despite all the feel good "he broke down his swing and built it back from scratch" articles, Delgado still can't catch up with an inside fastball. And he's hurt again.

El Duque's many root canals are catching up with him. He hasn't even thrown batting practice yet.

Luis Castillo may not ever play in a spring game because his knees are held together by bazooka and masking tape.

Ruben Gotay's ankle may been broken and now we have to be ready to cross our fingers that Stache can make a much speedier recovery than expected and be on the bench for Opening Day.

Filthy Sanchez had an "underwhelming" fastball when he threw on Friday and hasn't even long tossed since. The Professor says that he's "still building arm strength."

Ryan Church had his possibly anti-semitic clock rung by Marlon Anderson and has to wear sunglasses to protect his sensitive eyes from the light.

And as if it couldn't get any worse, Wally Matthews ripped off an idea from the Mets blogosphere and penned a column suggesting "funny" slogans for the Mets to adopt this season. To add insult to injury, his final "witty" suggestion is "Wake Me Up When September Ends." Way to stay on top of those pop culture references Wally...but Benigno and Screech used the song for their fantastic montage of the final day of the season's highlights.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2008 New York Mets!

Juan Gone

One at bat in the majors since 2004. One pitch from TBPiB. One moonshot over the outstretched glove of Pee-Hands.

The only thing that could have made it any more hilarious is if Moises' knee exploded as he leaped to try and make a play.

Our Prospects Are Good....Right?

I know this is weeks late, but it was too funny not to post. Metsblog's Jordan Zakarin interviewed Kevin Goldstein of BP on Valentine's Day and this happened. I bolded the especially memorable parts.

Jordan Zakarin: One of the most intriguing guys in the Mets system is Scott Moviel – obviously has a high ceiling, but the Mets were seemingly recently burned with a big right hander in Mike Pelfrey. Are there legit similarities there, and can Moviel perhaps turn into a top of the line prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t see the similarities really, other than the tall, right-handedness.

Jordan Zakarin: So that’s a good thing?

Kevin Goldstein: Moviel is all projection, while Pelfrey has some really good stuff now — at least the fastball. Moviel is one of those players you can dream on — he could turn into a top of the line prospect, but keep in mind, that every system has this guy. The big, projectable pitcher. A few of them turn into really nice prospects, and most fall by the wayside. Still, to even have a player with that chance is a good thing.

Jordan Zakarin: Sounds like the Mets were pleasantly surprised with his initial performance, though.

Kevin Goldstein: Yes — he took very well to coaching, showed some early feel for a changeup, and threw more strikes than expected.

Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee with upside, Brant Rustich – some say he had some of the best pure stuff in the draft – if he really did gain that command he showed in his pro debut, what’s his ceiling, and is there a chance he’s a starter?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s probably a reliever in the end. Rustich has very good raw stuff, but whoever said it was the best in the draft was smoking something. His fastball/slider combination gives him two plus pitches that profile best in relief, as he doesn’t have much of a changeup. The control hit seems like a total fluke, based on what he did at UCLA, and the fact that he wasn’t throwing strikes in Hawaii.

Jordan Zakarin: He was hurt while at UCLA though, right? He said that really hurt his command, when I talked to him.

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but not always. It’s not like he was a world beater when his finger was fine. He’s mechanically a little messy, and until he consistently throws strikes, he’s not going to have a lot of believers in him… For a guy with an ERA over six in college, to still go in the second round, that tells you his stuff is pretty impressive — but he’s got a long way to go.

Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee coming from the pen — Eddie Kunz – set up man, or potential closer? Did his tough pro debut take away some of the luster, or was he just tired from non-stop pitching the last two years?

Kevin Goldstein: I see him as almost a borderline closer. It could happen, but I’m not sold on it yet. I don’t think his debut really dinged him too much, even Mets knew that he wasn’t one of those college fast-track relievers and might take a bit to develop.

Jordan Zakarin: So he’s not on the Joe Smith track, per se?

Kevin Goldstein: Not unless he starts throwing a ton of strikes.

…as i said on Tuesday, big thanks to kevin, who took out a huge chunk of time to do another interview with me…

…it seems that the Mets still have some decent prospects, it’s just more an issue of a lack of real close-to-the-majors, high-ceiling guys…the thing is, kevin is more optimistic than i had anticipated about the big picture, maybe because the big league team has a real chance to win…but, there are some younger, further away, high-ceiling guys there, which is better than having just a bunch of future utilitymen…

…as i keep saying, this draft, in which the Mets will have three picks inside the first 33, will be very, very important…

Ok, now here is the first comment from the post (which was not by me, though I wish it was):

Comment by The Milledge Idiot

2008-02-14 12:55:36

Jordan: The Mets prospects are good, right!?

Kevin: No.

Jordan: They’re good, right!?

Kevin: No.

Jordan: I’ve heard great things, they’re going to be great!

Kevin: No.

That - as Kenny Bania would say - is gold.

I know it happens at the start of every Spring Training, but is it me or does it seem like the prospect hype is going a little above and beyond this season? The Mets have always overhyped their prospects. See, e.g. "Generation K." But this year on Mets.com, Metsblog, you name the official outlet, it just seems like there is a constant stream of "we have good prospects in the system, you just haven't heard of them!"

Not according to BP.

Dear Jon, Get Off Jimmy's Nuts

Jon Heyman's aversion to rational inferences based on statistics is well documented at places like FJM, but his dislike of the Mets - or love of Jimmy Rollins - has never been that apparent to me. That is, until I read his latest contribution to SI:

The Mets may unseat the Phillies as NL East champions this year, but there's no sense in trying to beat NL MVP and trash talker extraordinaire Jimmy Rollins at his own game.

Quiet Mets star Carlos Beltran gave it a surprise shot when he got to camp, borrowing Rollins' exact line from last spring in declaring the Mets as "the team to beat." But as Phillies pitcher Brett Myers noted, "Sequels are never as good as the original.''

And then Rollins chimed in the next day, "Has anyone ever heard of plagiarism?''

Beltran, a nice, laconic, well-groomed fellow, stunned folks with his rare back-page fodder. But Rollins holds the patent. He gets all the credit, with only an assist from the Mets for their reaction last spring. "I thank the Mets,'' Rollins said. "They took it upon themselves to take it personally.

Beltran and other Mets types are understandably excited about the acquisition of ace pitcher Johan Santana. Yet the Mets should hold their tongues now for two very good reasons: 1) They had their chance last spring when Rollins spoke, but to a man, they were afraid to speak up, a reticence that was later reflected in the way they played -- scared; and 2) Philly beat the Mets to a pulp down the stretch, winning the last seven head-to-head games.

Beltran gave it a shot. But under the circumstances his words came off as a pale impersonation of the master.

Ok. Besides the excess verbiage (Laconic? Really Jon?), Heyman seems to imply that the Mets should have answered the challenge last spring when *The MVP* declared the Phillies "the team to beat." Jon Heyman, you're a moron. There, I said it.

I'll go out on a limb and say that the only people calling for any Met player to publicly answer Rollins statements were Vinny from Staten Island and Paulie from Bay Ridge - and they were both "first time, long time."

I can't remember a single person in the media that wanted a Met to answer Rollins. If I remember correctly, the opposite was true. Rollins was viewed as a trash talking SS on a historically losing franchise. Why waste breath in answering him? All anyone wanted the Mets to do was go out on the field and take care of business much like they did on Opening Day.

Now, after The Collapse®, Jon Heyman is talking shit about the Mets saying how they should have manned up and fired a shot back? Get the fuck out of here Heyman, you're embarrassing yourself.

Puff Piece

(If you look closely you can see Fernando Tatis)

As JP at Blastings Thrilledge has already pointed out, the talented writers over at Baseball Analysts have been posting about the young guns ready to make an impact in 2008 from each division. This is what they have to say about the 2008 Mets:

The Mets are beginning to look a lot like the Yankees… by clubbing the rest of the organizations in their division with their checkbook. Mind you, the Mets are arguably more talented on the field at this point with the Yankees aging and a number of young players unproven. As a result of recent acquisitions, such as that minor trade that netted one of the best pitchers in baseball, the Mets do not appear as though they will entrust significant playing time to any rookies in 2008, barring a run on catastrophic injuries.

Music to Mets fans' ears! Well, we already knew that. Any Mets fan paying attention knows the only thing left in the minors is F-Mart. And most Mets fans are content with that for now seeing as how the depletion was the result of the Santana trade. So to recap: The Mets minor league system is barren...

Not according to the Mets!

The propaganda machine that I interviewed to work with - and was summarily dinged - churned out this beauty on Jonathon Niese this past week.

In case you hadn't been paying attention, Niese was drafted in '05 and spent the last two season in A-ball. His numbers aren't that impressive (4.29 ERA and 1.35 WHIP last year) especially considering it's in single-A. The one thing that stuck out for me is how dramatically he cut his BB rate from '06 to '07. Niese had slightly over a 2:1 K:BB ratio in 2006 and he raised to just over 3:1 in 2007.

In case anyone cares, Sickels ranked Niese the organizations #5 prospect (before the Santana deal) for 2008. He was ranked above both Humber and Joe Smith. Now I'd imagine it's a toss up between Niese and Eddie Kunz for the #2 prospect in the organization!

It's a sad, sad state of affairs. Emphasized by the fact that Jay Horowitz & Co. (aka "Marty Noble") felt the need to start hyping a pitcher who by all accounts will start a third straight year in A-ball with a career ERA of 4.09.

Don't fear Mets fans, help is on the way.

The Professor & His Balls

Caption contest time! Post in the comments.

"Really Rick? Victor Zambrano? 10 minutes?"

Check out more pictures here. Happy weekend.

Jesus Christ

Can't the world-beaters in the marketing department leave well enough alone?

I woke up to read this email this morning:







How can this team, a team who blew a 12...well you all know what happened, stand on a pedestal and offer a ticket package entitled "Team to Beat" Pack? I'd sign on for a "Let's Wait and See" Pack or even a "We'll Probably Win the Division, but Let's Not Jump to Conclusions" Pack, but "Team to Beat?"

There was a reason why it was so easy to root against the Phillies and Jimmy Rollins last season. I think it had something to do with a SS making bold predictions before the season started.

As Metstradamus has lamented, these comments coming from Beltran's mouth is one thing, having the team latch onto it and turn it into a marketing campaign is another.

The 2008 Mets: Let's Jinx This Motherfucker Before We Even Play a Game.