Wednesday, February 20, 2008

A Tale of Two LOOGYs

JP's recent post examining the Mets bullpen over at Blastings! Thrilledge got me thinking about the state of the 2008 bullpen. Besides overpaying for Jorge Sosa and the return of the Sanchez not much has been written on the relief corps. I found that to be ironic, seeing as the bullpen played a large role in the Collapse® of 2007.

From a - very - cursory look at the stats it looks like carrying both Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis this season will be a mistake that will likely cost Joe Smith, Matt Wise, or Filthy Sanchez a roster spot.

While many people claimed that Feliciano solidified his spot last season as a legitimate reliever, his numbers against RHB proved that while he wasn't terrible against RHB - there were still far better options in the pen:
Feliciano vs. RHB:   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
.221 .325 .371 .697
He was much, much better against LHB (.168 BAA, .211 SLG, .483 OPS) - his problem like in 2006 was walking too many batters.

Compare the numbers of the other members of the bullpen against RHB last season to Feliciano's numbers against righties.
                 BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
Heilman: .218 .263 .305 .568
Sosa: .202 .253 .296 .549
.266 .361 .359 .720
Sanchez ('06) .179 .275 .226 .501

The Show: .316 .390 .574 .963
Wagner: .209 .268 .318 .587
It's clear that Feliciano holds RHB to around the same BA as the better RHP in the Mets pen, but when the RHB make contact they hit it a lot harder and further (he also walks a bunch of them). In fact, the only RHP in the bullpen that was worse against RHB was Smith, and PECOTA and ZiPS project him to be much improved in 2008.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that while Feliciano isn't terrible against righties - he isn't great either, and he shouldn't be facing them with so many other viable RHP options in the bullpen.

Because Schoeneweis' numbers against righties are so awful his value would be maximized by making him strictly a LOOGY as JP pointed out over at BT. If you need anymore proof check this out (hat tip to BT).

It would appear, however, that carrying him as a LOOGY would force Feliciano into bigger spots (non 1-2 out situations) against RHB. As we have seen, RHB reach base against him at a far higher clip than they do other members of the pen.

However, Omar did sign Schoeneweis for way too much money and Willie will probably give him another shot to get everyone out this year so we should probably all brace ourselves for more moonshots exiting Shea over the head of a angry and frustrated Scotty Show. I, for one, can't wait.

Sorry for the rambling. None of this matters anyway - the manager doesn't know how to use the bullpen. Thank you Joe Torre.

1 comment:

Megan said...

Good points, bad handling of the bullpen definitely played a major role in the collapse and Santana hasn't fixed that.
Also good looking out, I've been off my game not doing a post about Fonzie, I'll get on that right away.